Santana shuts down Dodgers, Mets offense awakens
Baseball Betting Lines
07/24/2010 - Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Johan Santana silenced the Dodgers for seven innings, and New York's offense awoke from a two-week slumber in a 6-1 victory at Chavez Ravine.
The Mets were held to four runs or less in each of their previous 13 games, but a balanced attack with the bats and Santana's arm helped the club to their second win in nine games since the All-Star break.
Santana (8-5) surrendered just one run on five hits and a walk to go with four strikeouts in the win. The left-hander has gone at least seven frames and given up one run or less in his last five outings.
Jason Bay went 2-for-4 with three RBI, Ike Davis hit a solo home run, and Jose Reyes doubled, walked, stole a base and scored two runs for the victors.
Vicente Padilla (4-3) took the look despite allowing a mere two runs -- one earned -- on six hits in seven innings for Los Angeles, which won the opener of this four-game series, 2-0, on Thursday.
"Padilla pitched sensational. We just couldn't get any offense going. Santana works fast and you don't get many opportunities against him," Dodgers manager Joe Torre said. "We've been struggling offensively."
Reyes doubled leading off the game, moved to third on Luis Castillo's bunt single and scored when Blake DeWitt missed Russell Martin's throw to second on Castillo's steal attempt.
Davis crushed Padilla's 53-m.p.h. curve in the second to make it 2-0, though the Mets left a pair of runners in scoring position when Castillo grounded out to short. It was a close play at first, and New York manager Jerry Manuel was ejected by first base umpire Doug Eddings for arguing the call.
Santana used several terrific fielding plays behind him to maintain the lead early on, as Bay made a running catch while slamming into the left-field fence in the second, and Angel Pagan and Carlos Beltran each pulled off sliding grabs in the outfield a little later.
LA got its only run in the fifth, as Martin doubled leading off, advanced 90 feet on a groundout and scored on Jamey Carroll's sac fly.
The visitors pulled away in the eighth against the Dodgers' bullpen. James McDonald relieved Jeff Weaver after a pair of walks and yielded a sacrifice fly to David Wright for a 3-1 game. An intentional walk to Beltran was followed by Jack Taschner putting Davis on with another walk to load the bases.
Yet another pitching change saw Travis Schlichting come in to face Bay, who laced a liner to the right-field gap to clear the bags and send the Mets to a much-needed win.
"I felt I had good at-bats tonight, and it was nice to get good results in the eighth inning," recalled Bay. "That was big in a lot of ways."
Game Notes
Before the game, New York designated pitcher Fernando Nieve for assignment and recalled pitcher Manny Acosta from Triple-A Buffalo...Santana has been victorious in all four career starts against LA...Bobby Parnell and Francisco Rodriguez each threw a scoreless inning of relief for the Mets...Padilla was 3-0 with a 0.98 earned run average in his previous four starts coming in...Casey Blake had two of the Dodgers' five hits...The Mets had lost 10 of 14 games in Hollywood since the 2007 season.
Oakland, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mark Buehrle pitched his second complete game of the season to earn his first career win in Oakland as the White Sox topped the A's, 5-1, to open a three-game series. Buehrle (9-8) twirled a four-hitter, o
<< Red Sox edge hot-headed Mariners in Beckett's return
Seattle, WA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Bill Hall hit the go-ahead home run in the
seventh inning and Josh Beckett pitched into the sixth in his first appearance
in over two months as Boston edged the Mariners, 2-1, in the continuation of a
four-ga
<< Santana shuts down Dodgers, Mets offense awakes
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Johan Santana silenced the Dodgers for
seven innings, and New York's offense awoke from a two-week slumber in a 6-1
victory at Chavez Ravine.
The Mets were held to four runs or less in each of the
<< Diamondbacks' Kelly Johnson hits for cycle
Phoenix, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Arizona Diamondbacks second baseman Kelly
Johnson became the fourth player in team history to hit for the cycle Friday
against the Giants.
Johnson homered in the first inning and was hit by a pitc
<< Wife of former Steelers coach Cowher dies
Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kaye Cowher, the wife of former Pittsburgh
Steelers head coach Bill Cowher, reportedly died Friday at the age of 54.
The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports Kaye died in her native North Carolina
after a
Phoenix, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Aubrey Huff hit two home runs and drove in three, as the San Francisco Giants spoiled Kelly Johnson's cycle and beat the Diamondbacks, 7-4, in the continuation of a four-game series. Andres Torres added
Cards activate Ryan Ludwick off DL >>
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The St. Louis Cardinals have activated
outfielder Ryan Ludwick off the 15-day disabled list.
Ludwick had been sidelined with a strained calf since June 26 and missed 23
games entering Saturday's c
A-Rod hopes for another milestone against Kyle Davies >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Alex Rodriguez continues his quest to become the youngest
player to 600 home runs this afternoon when the New York Yankees resume their
four-game series with the Kansas City Royals at Yankee Stadium.
On Saturday, Rodriguez
Gorzelanny shoots for fourth straight win in middle tilt with Cards >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tom Gorzelanny goes after his fourth straight win this
afternoon when the Chicago Cubs play the middle test of their three-game
series against the St. Louis Cardinals at Wrigley Field.
Gorzelanny, who is 5-5 with a 3.12
White Sox try to stay hot in Oakland >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With Detroit and Minnesota nipping at their heels the
Chicago White Sox will try to keep their small lead in the AL Central when
they take on the Oakland Athletics this afternoon at the Coliseum.
One of the biggest reasons
Marlins could start season without No. 2 starter Johnson
JUPITER, Fla. -- The Foorida Marlins are preparing for the likelihood that right-hander
Josh Johnson won't be ready when the season starts April 2.
Grapefruit League action starts Wednesday, but Johnson, penciled in as the No. 2 starter, hasn't even thrown off a mound at full speed since September. He's experienced some soreness in his right forearm.
MySportsbook.com have the Marlins listed with baseball betting lines at +800 to win the NL East this season .
''You guys know the math. If he's not on the hill then he becomes an opening day roster issue,'' manager Fredi Gonzalez said Saturday. ''We're borderline now.''
Johnson, who finished 12-7 with a 3.10 ERA in 2007, was supposed to throw on flat ground Saturday. That was canceled when he woke up with pain.
He played catch on Wednesday with no pain but felt discomfort in a throwing session on Thursday. He's expected to try again Sunday.
''Like we always said from the very beginning, we're going to take it easy on him,'' Gonzalez said. ''He didn't feel right, so we shut him down. We're going to take it back to step one and see where we're at.''
Among the candidates to take Johnson's spot in the rotation are left-hander Chris George and right-handers Yusmeiro Petit and Jose Garcia.
Right-hander Sergio Mitre, who missed most of last season with arm and shoulder problems, also is behind.
With Johnson's status doubtful, Gonzalez said right-hander Ricky Nolasco will stay in the rotation and no longer will be considered a candidate for closer.
Additional basbeall odds can be found at: www.MySportsbook.com
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How to bet pro football
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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